The Tilray Brands stock price has staged a strong bullish rebound in the past few months, moving from a low of $0.352 in June to $1.25, up by 256%. Here’s what to expect as market participants wait for the cannabis rescheduling.
Donald Trump muted on cannabis rescheduling
The Tilray Brands stock price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months as investors cheered a report that Trump was considering rescheduling cannabis into a less dangerous drug.
At the time, the president, who received campaign donations from cannabis companies, said that he would decide in a few weeks. That announcement led to cheers from cannabis stock investors, and jeers from cannabis critics, including Charlie Kirk.
It is unclear whether the rescheduling will happen, which explains why the Tilray stock price has wavered in the past few weeks.
Friendly regulations in the industry would be bullish for the Tilray stock price as it would allow the Canadian company to expand its business in the United States. In the past, the management has ruled out such expansion unless the country made progress on regulations.
Besides, despite the legalization of cannabis in most states, companies in the industry still face major challenges. For one, possessing and cultivating of marijuana is still a federal crime punishable by fines and prison time. Companies also face challenges related to banking in the industry.
Tilray’s business is struggling
An entry into the US would help Tilray Brands as its business faces major headwinds.
The most recent results showed that the company’s revenue dropped to $224 million in the fiscal fourth quarter from $229 million in the same period last year.
It blamed this decline to the strategic decision to pause selling of its vape and infused pre-roll products as it focuses on profitability. As a result, its cannabis revenue dropped to $67 million, down from $71 million.
Most importantly, even the company’s beverage business is struggling despite spending millions of dollars on acquisitions. Its net revenue dropped to $65.6 million from $76 million during the quarter, citing industry challenges.
The only divisions that did well during the quarter were distribution and its wellness, whose revenues jumped to $74.1 million and $17 million.
Tilray stock price technical analysis
The daily timeframe shows that the TLRY stock price has rebounded in the past few months, moving from a low of $0.3530 to $1.62 today. It peaked at the ultimate resistance of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $1.62.
The stock also formed a golden cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other.
It recently pulled back to $1.10 and is now in a slow recovery as investors buy the dip and Trump’s delay continues.
Therefore, the most likely Tilray stock price forecast is bullish, with the next key level to watch being the year-to-date high of $1.62.
A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological level at $2. However, there is also a risk of a crash if Trump decides not to support the rescheduling.
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